Publications

Journal Article
The Effects of Turnout on Partisan Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections 1960-2000
Gill, Jeff, and Michael Martinez. “The Effects of Turnout on Partisan Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections 1960-2000.” Journal of Politics 67, no. 4 (2005): 1248-1274. Publisher's Version Abstract
It is commonly believed by pundits and political elites that higher turnout favors Democratic candidates,
but the extant research is inconsistent in finding this effect.  The purpose of this article is to provide scholars
with a methodology for assessing the likely effects of turnout on an election outcome using simulations based on
survey data.  By varying simulated turnout rates for five U.S. elections from 1960 to 2000, we observe that
Democratic advantages from higher turnout (and Republican advantages from lower turnout) have steadily ebbed since
1960, corresponding to the erosion of class cleavages in U.S. elections.
Reprint: PDFAppendix with coding details for 1964.
Welcome to the special issue of Political Analysis dedicated to Bayesian methods. We hope that you enjoy the varied and interesting contributions herein featuring Bayesian statistical methods. For many people in empirical political science, Bayesian statistics seems like a weird offshoot of probability that surfaces occasionally in journals and books but does not occupy a particularly central role. This perception appears to be changing. In fact, it appears to be changing quite rapidly. The purpose of this issue is to support and accelerate this momentum by further demonstrating the full flexibility and power of Bayesian methodology.
What to do When Your Hessian is Not Invertible: Alternatives to Model Respecification in Nonlinear Estimation
Gill, Jeff, and Gary King. “What to do When Your Hessian is Not Invertible: Alternatives to Model Respecification in Nonlinear Estimation.” Sociological Methods and Research (2004).
Reprints: PostscriptPDFGauss Code for the Gill-Murray generalized Cholesky Decomposition. Gauss Code for the Schnabel-Eskow generalized Cholesky Decomposition, R version, and Some R routines for checking/running. See also Gary's page for this project.
Solidary and Functional Costs: Explaining the Presidential Appointment Contradiction
Gill, Jeff, and Rick Waterman. “Solidary and Functional Costs: Explaining the Presidential Appointment Contradiction.” Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 14 (2004).
Reprints: PDFPostscript.
S'attaquer a l'Heritage de Fisher: Comment Tester une Hypothése en Science Sociale: Quelques Commentaires Sur Denis
Gill, Jeff. “S'attaquer a l'Heritage de Fisher: Comment Tester une Hypothése en Science Sociale: Quelques Commentaires Sur Denis.” Journal de la Société Française de Statistique 145, no. 4 (2004).
Dynamic Tempered Transitions for Exploring Multimodal Posterior Distributions
Gill, Jeff, and George Casella. “Dynamic Tempered Transitions for Exploring Multimodal Posterior Distributions.” Political Analysis 12, no. 4 (2004). Publisher's Version
Reprint: PDF. Summer Methodology Meeting Slides: PDF. In the same issue: Jeff Gill, Introducing the Special Issue of Political Analysis on Bayesian Methods. Reprint: PDF.
Is Partial-Dimension Convergence a Problem for Inferences From MCMC Algorithms?
Hierarchical Linear Models
Gill, Jeff. “Hierarchical Linear Models.” Encyclopedia of Social Measurement. Elsevier. (2002). Publisher's Version
Reprints: PDFPostscript.
Generalized Linear Models
Gill, Jeff. “Generalized Linear Models.” Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods. Sage. (2002). Publisher's Version
Reprints: PostscriptPDF.
Why Does Voting Get So Complicated? A Review of Theories for Analyzing Democratic Participation
Reprint: PDF.
Ralph's Pretty Good Grocery Versus Ralph's Super Market, Separating Excellent Agencies From the Good Ones
Gill, Jeff, and Ken Meier. “Ralph's Pretty Good Grocery Versus Ralph's Super Market, Separating Excellent Agencies From the Good Ones.” Public Administration Review 61, no. 1 (2001): 4-12.
Reprints: PDFPostscript.
Whose Variance is it Anyway? Interpreting Empirical Models with State-Level Data
Gill, Jeff. “Whose Variance is it Anyway? Interpreting Empirical Models with State-Level Data.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly (2001): 318-38. Publisher's Version
Public Administration Research and Practice: A Methodological Manifesto
Gill, Jeff, and Ken Meier. “Public Administration Research and Practice: A Methodological Manifesto.” Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory (2000). Publisher's Version
Tightwads and Spendthrifts: Measures of Fiscal Behavior In the House of Representatives
Gill, Jeff, and James Thurber. “Tightwads and Spendthrifts: Measures of Fiscal Behavior In the House of Representatives.” Political Research Quarterly (1999): 387-401. Publisher's Version
Reprints: PDFPostscript.
The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing
Gill, Jeff. “The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing.” Political Research Quarterly (1999): 647-674. Publisher's Version
Reprints: PDFPostscript.
Formal Models of Legislative/Administrative Interaction: A Survey of the Subfield
Gill, Jeff. “Formal Models of Legislative/Administrative Interaction: A Survey of the Subfield.” Public Administration Review 55, no. 1 (1995). Publisher's Version
Book Chapter
Gill, Jeff, and Michelle Torres. “Flagship Entries: ``Generalized Linear Models'.” In SAGE Research Methods Foundations. Sage, Forthcoming.
Book
Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach
Answers to the odd-numbered questions are not here. SInce the Spring of 2016 all of the code and data for the book has been located in the R package BaM, including both R and JAGS. Answers to odd numbered exercises are here. And the errata is here. The Corrected index for the very first print run (few people will need this). The state.df dataset got left off the BaM package so it's here.
Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach
Essential Mathematics for Political and Social Research
Manuscript Contents Listing and Preface: PDFErrataAnswers to odd-numbered exercises

Pages